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香港 - 美国当选总统特朗普明年一月开始执政,届时他到底会怎么做,我们无法知晓 。但可以肯定的是他会实施减税及增加基础设施支出。因此,金融市场预测美国增长会加速。这一认识促使美元兑大部分货币(包括人民币)汇率强劲升值,并导致资本逃离新兴经济体。

抛开特朗普竞选时提出的要对中国征收高关税之口号,美元升值必定有损于美国的贸易竞争力。毕竟,据国际货币基金组织(IMF)今年六月的评估,美元已有10-20% 的高估

但美元升值的冲击超出了对贸易的影响。尽管传统上贸易被认为是决定汇率的主要因素,汇率涨跌通常被认为可以纠正一国的对外贸易失衡,但当今资本跨境流动规模已经非常庞大,它们对汇率的冲击比以前大很多 。在这样的背景下,市场对美国增长保持乐观可能会导致比以往更严重的贸易及资本流动失衡,冲击并动摇国际货币体系。

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