US's Joseph Dunford meets Xi Jinping Andy Wong/Getty Images

特朗普能和中朝做交易吗?

发自剑桥——那么多年以来,美国人都误解了朝鲜的核威胁,也误判了这个问题的解决路径;他们还误解了美中两国间的双边贸易赤字,过度高估了其重要性。如今随着特朗普总统威胁要对中国设立新的贸易壁垒,而美国又必须依靠这些壁垒来协助遏制日益危险的朝鲜,这两个问题已经变得紧密相连,可是美国官员在如何应对这两者方面似乎还没什么头绪。

在朝鲜身上冒的风险显然更高,上周的美韩联合军演又令本已紧绷的局势进一步恶化。一旦美国和朝鲜发生军事对抗就会引发动用核武器的真实危机,而即使是一场常规战争也可能是灾难性的。

贸易与朝鲜的核挑战相关,因为中国的严厉经济制裁——可能包括停止石油供应——可能会是阻止朝鲜核计划(以换取美国某些安全保障)的最佳选择。特朗普或许非常明白这一点,但他显然相信自己可以利用美中贸易作为谈判筹码来换取中国出手协助处理朝鲜问题。这个做法就是错误的。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To continue reading, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Z745nd6/zh;

Handpicked to read next

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.