US's Joseph Dunford meets Xi Jinping Andy Wong/Getty Images

特朗普能和中朝做交易吗?

发自剑桥——那么多年以来,美国人都误解了朝鲜的核威胁,也误判了这个问题的解决路径;他们还误解了美中两国间的双边贸易赤字,过度高估了其重要性。如今随着特朗普总统威胁要对中国设立新的贸易壁垒,而美国又必须依靠这些壁垒来协助遏制日益危险的朝鲜,这两个问题已经变得紧密相连,可是美国官员在如何应对这两者方面似乎还没什么头绪。

在朝鲜身上冒的风险显然更高,上周的美韩联合军演又令本已紧绷的局势进一步恶化。一旦美国和朝鲜发生军事对抗就会引发动用核武器的真实危机,而即使是一场常规战争也可能是灾难性的。

贸易与朝鲜的核挑战相关,因为中国的严厉经济制裁——可能包括停止石油供应——可能会是阻止朝鲜核计划(以换取美国某些安全保障)的最佳选择。特朗普或许非常明白这一点,但他显然相信自己可以利用美中贸易作为谈判筹码来换取中国出手协助处理朝鲜问题。这个做法就是错误的。

特朗普的治理手法——以他本人对规则,原则,联盟和体制的极端漠视为特征——有时被描述为好像是在做交易。这种说法的依据通常来自于特朗普的商业背景,而大家原本期望他可以成为美国所需的交易高手。但事实上,特朗普的行为体现出他并没有考虑到一些实现成功谈判的最基本要素。

一位老练的谈判者知道自己得从对手角度来看待这场博弈,以便确定哪些结果能被双方确认为有利并找到共同点。此外,缔结一项协议需要在威逼和利诱两方面都要说话算话。

而特朗普与中国谈判的尝试却在两方面都没有做好。从中国的角度来看,一个拥有核武和朝鲜固然不可取,但至少比一个秩序全面奔溃的朝鲜要好,因为这可能会导致大量难民涌入中国同时让美军推进到本国边界。在这种背景下,反复无常的美国贸易威胁可没法说服中国去对自己那个爱惹麻烦的盟友施加压力。

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相反,美国和韩国应该承诺:如果中国支持的制裁确实导致朝鲜政权崩溃,中国不会遭遇派驻三八线以北的美军部队或者一个统一且拥有核武装的朝鲜半岛。如果想在短期内让中国对朝鲜采取和强加额外的制裁,美韩就应该暂停在韩国部署萨德导弹系统(THAAD)。

但是做到这一点——或者任何——战略要求美国总统必须言而有信。不幸的是,特朗普的言论——无论是关于过去,现在或未来——往往都与现实脱节。在朝核问题上他显然缺乏一贯性,可靠性和后续跟进意识。

在今年1月,特朗普发推特说朝鲜研发出能到达美国部分地区的核武器“是不可能的!”结果到了7月,朝鲜已经在测试能够打到美国的洲际弹道导弹,且据信该国已经具备生产可以安装上洲际弹道导弹的小型化核弹头的能力。

而在本月初,特朗普表示任何来自朝鲜的威胁“都将遭遇前所未有的怒火与打击”,对此朝鲜领导人金正恩则以威胁袭击关岛的方式作出回应。特朗普重申,如果金正日“以公然的方式发出威胁……他很快会悔恨不已的。”但这些声明显然不可信也不准确。

特朗普在跟中国打交道时表现出类似的善变和有头无尾。在去年12月,即将接任总统的特朗普就挑战了他的民主党和共和前任所共同遵守的“一个中国”政策。他这样做要么是没意识到中国可比美国更愿意去打一场台湾战争,要么就是在展示自己特有的短视。无论如何他不得不在随后的2月9日扭转自己的立场,刚就职后几个礼拜就丢了面子,并为未来跟战略上精明老道的中国人做交易开了个坏头。

同样,特朗普曾一再承诺会在上任后就会把中国定性为货币操纵者,结果在这一点上又食了言。其实这个威胁相当愚蠢——尤其因为如果中国当局在2015~16年期间没有出手干预外汇市场,那么结果将是一个更弱势的人民币,而非更强势。

到目前为止,中国国家主席习近平和大多数世界领导人一样,已经学会了把特朗普的警告打折来听。特朗普的声明表明他对美国的盟友缺乏忠诚——他花了好几个月的时间来才愿意确认自身对《北大西洋公约》第5条的支持,而这条正是为北约奠基的集体防御条款——让那些最亲密的合作伙伴都不敢贸然与他的政府达成协议。

白宫仍然在对中国采取进攻性的贸易政策措施,但只有其中一些能占上风。(虽然推动知识产权保护的努力拥有一定的现实基础,但动用国家安全豁免权来阻止钢铁进口的做法是非常糟糕的)。但对于美国的贸易平衡,实际收入增长和就业而言,这些举措将不会起到太大作用,也肯定无法说服中国去帮助缓解朝鲜的核威胁。

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