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Trump, Korporatismus und Innovationsschwäche

CHICAGO –  In den USA scheint vielen eine innenpolitische Verschiebung von der Weltoffenheit zum Nationalismus und von den linksgerichteten „Eliten“ der Ballungsräume hin zu rechtsgerichteten ländlichen „Populisten“ im Gange zu sein. Die vorherrschende Wirtschaftsideologie verlagert sich ebenfalls, und zwar von einem auf Umverteilung und Regulierung setzenden Korporatismus hin zu so etwas wie dem alten interventionistischen Korporatismus.

Hinter beiden Veränderungen stehen unzufriedene Wähler. Jahrzehntelang waren die Amerikaner überzeugt, dass sie auf einem Zauberteppich wirtschaftlichen Wachstums dahinflögen, der durch Fortschritte in den Naturwissenschaften und später durch den Aufstieg des Silicon Valley beflügelt wurde. Tatsächlich wächst die Gesamtfaktorproduktivität seit den frühen 1970er Jahren nur langsam. Der Internetboom der Jahre 1996-2004 war lediglich eine vorübergehende Ausnahme von diesem Trend.

Im Laufe der Zeit haben die Unternehmen ihre Investitionen aufgrund der sinkenden Renditen, zurückgefahren; der Anstieg der Arbeitsproduktivität und der Stundenlöhne hat sich verlangsamt, und in vielen Haushalten sind Arbeitnehmer aus der Erwerbsbevölkerung herausgefallen.

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