Mnuchin budget Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Trumps magischer Haushalt

CAMBRIDGE – Die Regierung von US-Präsident Donald Trump hat nun ihre Haushaltsplanungen für das Haushaltjahr 2018 veröffentlicht. Zu den in dem Dokument mit dem Titel America First – A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again (America First – ein Haushaltsentwurf, um Amerika wieder groß zu machen) enthaltenen Details gehören Prognosen zur voraussichtlichen Entwicklung der Bruttoschulden der US-Bundesregierung als Anteil vom BIP, die einen Rückgang von ihrem aktuellen Niveau von rund 106% auf etwa 80% im Jahr 2027 zeigen. Die Schulden der Bevölkerung sollen diese Entwicklung widerspiegeln und im selben Zeitraum von 77% auf 60% zurückgehen.

Leider ist keine dieser Prognosen glaubwürdig.

Ein nachhaltiger, deutlicher Rückgang der Staatsverschuldung (im Vergleich zum BIP) wäre eine willkommene Nachricht für diejenigen unter uns, die höhere Schulden mit jener Art fiskalischer Anfälligkeit gleichsetzen, die eine Regierung in ihrer Fähigkeit zur Bewältigung negativer Erschütterungen beschränkt. Doch wie viele Kritiker angemerkt haben, scheinen die dem günstigen Szenario der Trump-Regierung zugrundeliegenden wirtschaftlichen Annahmen unwahrscheinlich. Tatsächlich widersprechen sie sich zudem noch.

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