Mnuchin budget Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Les incohérences budgétaires de Trump

CAMBRIDGE – Le gouvernement américain vient de présenter son projet de budget pour l'année fiscale 2018 dans un document intitulé America First – A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again publié par le Bureau de la gestion et du budget. Ce document comporte des prévisions concernant la dette qui est supposée diminuer de 77% à 60% du PIB d'ici 2027. Malheureusement ce n'est pas crédible.

Une baisse marquée et durable du taux d'endettement public serait une bonne nouvelle pour tous ceux qui pensent que le surendettement conduit à une fragilité budgétaire qui empêche l'Etat de faire face à une crise éventuelle avec toute l'efficacité voulue. Mais comme beaucoup de critiques l'ont souligné, les hypothèses qui sous-tendent ce scénario optimiste sont irréalistes, elles sont même contradictoires.

Le budget de Trump repose sur une croissance durable de 3%, ce qui ne semble pas compatible avec le recul de la productivité, le ralentissement de la croissance démographique et la participation de plus en plus faible de la force de travail à l'économie. Ce sont ces éléments qui ont conduit aux multiples révisions à la baisse de la croissance potentielle par la Réserve fédérale et le Bureau du budget du Congrès.

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