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Trump, el Dragón y el Minotauro

ATENAS – Si algo entiende Donald Trump, es el valor de la bancarrota y el reciclado financiero. Domina el arte del impago estratégico seguido de quitas de deuda masivas y creación de activos a partir de pasivos. Pero, ¿comprenderá la profunda diferencia entre la deuda de un empresario constructor y la de una gran economía? ¿Y sabrá que la economía mundial está sentada encima de un barril de pólvora: la burbuja de deuda privada de China? Mucho depende de la respuesta a estas preguntas.

Trump fue elegido por una ola de descontento con la pésima gestión que hizo el establishment del auge anterior a 2008 y de la recesión que le siguió. Sus promesas de estímulo interno y políticas comerciales proteccionistas para recuperar empleos fabriles lo llevaron a la Casa Blanca. Pero su capacidad de cumplirlas depende de que comprenda el papel que Estados Unidos tenía en “los buenos tiempos”, el que puede tener hoy y, sobre todo, la importancia de China.

Hasta 1971, la hegemonía mundial de Estados Unidos se basó en su superávit de cuenta corriente en relación con el resto del mundo capitalista, que Estados Unidos ayudaba a estabilizar reciclando una parte hacia Europa y Japón. Esto sostuvo la estabilidad económica y una gran reducción de la desigualdad en todas partes. Pero conforme la economía estadounidense comenzó a tornarse deficitaria, ese sistema global ya no era viable, lo que dio lugar a lo que he denominado la fase del Minotauro global.

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