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Trump, der Drache und der Minotaurus

ATHEN – Wenn Donald Trump etwas versteht, dann die Vorteile des Bankrotts und des Finanzrecyclings. Er weiß alles über den Erfolg, der mit strategischen Zahlungsausfällen gefolgt von massiven Schuldenabschreibungen und der Schaffung von Vermögenswerten aus Verbindlichkeiten erreicht werden kann. Aber begreift er auch den grundlegenden Unterschied zwischen den Schulden eines Bauunternehmens und den Schulden einer großen Ökonomie? Und versteht er, dass Chinas Privatschuldenblase ein Pulverfass unter der Weltwirtschaft darstellt? Viel hängt davon ab, ob er das erfasst.

Trump verdankt seine Wahl einer Welle der Unzufriedenheit über den kolossal falschen Umgang des Establishments sowohl mit dem Boom vor 2008 als auch mit der Rezession nach 2008. Mit seinem Versprechen eines nationalen Konjunkturprogramms und protektionistischer handelspolitischer Maßnahmen, um Jobs in der industriellen Fertigung wieder in das Land zu bringen, brachte er es bis ins Weiße Haus.  Ob er nun auch liefern kann, hängt davon ab, ob er die Rolle Amerikas in den „guten alten Zeiten“ ebenso versteht, wie die Rolle, die das Land momentan spielen kann und – ganz entscheidend – ob er um die  Bedeutung Chinas weiß.

Vor 1971 gründete die globale Hegemonie der USA auf Amerikas Leistungsbilanzüberschuss  gegenüber dem Rest der kapitalistischen Welt, den die USA zu stabilisieren halfen, indem sie Teile ihres Überschusses nach Europa und Japan recycelten. Das unterstützte überall die wirtschaftliche Stabilität und eine stark rückläufige Ungleichheit. Als Amerika aber in eine Defizitposition geriet, konnte das globale System nicht mehr funktionieren, weil es in eine von mir so bezeichnete globale Minotaurus-Phase eintrat.

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