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Trump, drak a Mínótauros

ATÉNY – Jestli Donald Trump něčemu rozumí, je to hodnota bankrotu a finanční recyklace. Ví všechno o úspěchu skrze strategické úpadky, následované masivními odpisy dluhů a přetvářením pasiv v aktiva. Uvědomuje si ale hluboký rozdíl mezi dluhem developera a velké ekonomiky? A chápe, že soudkem prachu v základech globální ekonomiky je soukromý dluh Číny? Na tom, zda to chápe, závisí mnohé.

Trump byl zvolen na vlně nespokojenosti s tím, jak establishment kolosálně chyboval v přístupu ke konjunktuře před rokem 2008 i k recesi po roce 2008. Do Bílého domu jej vynesl slib domácí stimulace a ochranářských obchodních politik s cílem dostat zpět pracovní místa v průmyslové výrobě. Zda jej dokáže splnit, závisí na tom, jestli chápe, jakou roli Amerika hrávala ve „starých dobrých časech,“ jakou roli může hrát dnes a především jaký je význam Číny.

Před rokem 1971 byla hegemonie USA podmíněna přebytkem jejich obchodní bilance vůči zbytku kapitalistického světa, který USA pomáhaly stabilizovat recyklací jeho části v Evropě a Japonsku. To bylo základem ekonomické stability a všude strmě klesající nerovnosti. Jak ale Amerika sklouzávala do schodkového postavení, nemohl už takový globální systém fungovat a vývoj přešel do období, které jsem označil za fázi globálního Mínótaura.

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