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美中两国的相互依赖陷阱

发自纽黑文——美国总统特朗普似乎总想和全世界对着干,又把与中国爆发贸易冲突的可能性提了出来。8月14日,他指示美国贸易代表着手调查中国侵犯知识产权的行为。根据1974年《美国贸易法》第301条的规定,特朗普政府可以对中国商品征收高额且覆盖广泛的进口关税。

这一事态可不是无关紧要的。尽管最新公布的《美国贸易代表就中国遵守WTO规则状况呈交国会的报告》中有足量证据支撑这些指控,但这种惩罚性行动将为美国企业和消费者带来严重的后果。无论喜欢与否,这是世界两个最大经济体之间根深蒂固的相互依赖关系所导致的必然结果。

在一个相互依赖的人际关系中,一旦某方改变参与条件,另一方就会觉得自己受了侮辱并以牙还牙,经济体及其领导人也是如此。这意味着在贸易冲突中应该重点考虑双方的互惠关系——具体来说就是中国对美国行为的回应。事实上这正是中国商务部对特朗普这一手的正式回应中所秉承的观点。中方表示将“采取一切适当措施坚决维护本国合法权益”。

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