Beijing sunrise Jie Zhao/Getty Images

Ловушка Киндлбергера

КЕМБРИДЖ (США) – При разработке политики свой администрации в отношении Китая будущему президенту США Дональду Трампу следует помнить о двух серьёзных ловушках, которые для него приготовила история. О «ловушке Фукидида» уже упоминал председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин; это предупреждение древнегреческого историка о том, что может разразиться катастрофическая война, если существующая держава (такая, как США) начинает слишком опасаться набирающей силу новой державы (такой, как Китай). Но Трампу следует опасаться ещё и «ловушки Киндлбергера»: Китай может, наоборот, выглядеть скорее слишком слабым, чем слишком сильным.

Чарльз Киндлбергер, интеллектуальный архитектор плана Маршалла, преподавший затем в МИТ, так объяснял причины катастрофического десятилетия 1930-х: США заняли место Великобритании в качестве крупнейшей глобальной державы, но не взяли на себя британскую роль по обеспечению глобальных общественных благ. В результате, глобальная система распалась, началась депрессия, геноцид, мировая война. Сегодня, когда растёт сила Китая, будет ли эта страна помогать созданию глобальных общественных благ?

Внутри государств правительства создают общественные блага, например, охрану общественного порядка и окружающей среды, которые приносят пользу всем гражданам без исключения. На глобальном же уровне общественные блага, такие как стабильный климат, финансовая стабильность, свобода морей, обеспечиваются коалициями во главе с крупнейшими державами.

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