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金德尔伯格陷阱

坎布里奇——在美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普筹备其内阁对华政策时,他应当警惕历史为他设置的两大陷阱。其一是中国主席习近平提出的“修西得底斯陷阱”,指的是古希腊历史学家修西得底斯警告如果一个现有大国(如美国)太过恐惧一个正在崛起的大国(如中国),那就有可能爆发灾难性的战争。但特朗普还必须担心“金德尔伯格陷阱”:也就是中国似乎太弱而不是太强。

马歇尔计划的思想构建者之一、后来在麻省理工大学任教的查尔斯·金德尔伯格认为二十世纪三十年代多灾多难的原因是虽然美国取代英国成为世界大国,但却未能接替英国扮演为全球提供公共产品的角色。结果导致全球体系陷入衰退、种族灭绝和世界大战。今天,随着中国力量不断壮大,它是否会为提供全球公共产品贡献自己的力量?

国内政治环境下,政府负责提供维护治安或清洁环境的公共产品,民众可以从中获益,这些产品能够惠及所有人。而在全球环境下,公共产品——如稳定的气候、稳定的金融或航行自由——则由大国领导的联盟负责提供。

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