Beijing sunrise Jie Zhao/Getty Images

فخ كيندلبرجر

كمبريدج ــ فيما يعكف رئيس الولايات المتحدة المنتخب دونالد ترامب على تحضير السياسة التي ستنتهجها إدارته في التعامل مع الصين، ينبغي له أن يتوخى الحذر واليقظة خشية الانزلاق إلى فخين رئيسيين أعدهما له التاريخ. يشير الأول، "فخ ثيوسيديدز"، الذي استشهد به الرئيس الصيني شي جين بينج، إلى التحذير الذي أطلقه المؤرخ اليوناني القديم من احتمال اندلاع حرب كارثية إذا أصبحت قوة راسخة (مثل الولايات المتحدة) شديدة التخوف من قوة صاعدة (مثل الصين). ولكن ينبغي لترامب أن يتوخى الحذر أيضا من "فخ كيندلبرجر": الصين التي تبدو أضعف مما ينبغي وليس أقوى مما ينبغي.

زعم تشارلز كيندلبرجر، المهندس الفِكري لخطة مارشال والذي اشتغل في وقت لاحق بالتدريس في معهد ماساتشوستس للتكنولوجيا، أن عقد الثلاثينيات الكارثي حدث عندما حلت الولايات المتحدة محل بريطانيا باعتبارها القوة العالمية الأكبر ولكنها فشلت في الاضطلاع بالدور الذي لعبته بريطانيا في توفير المصالح العامة العالمية. وكانت النتيجة انهيار النظام العالمي الذي انزلق إلى الكساد، والإبادة الجماعية، والحرب العالمية. واليوم، مع نمو قوة الصين، فهل تساعد في توفير المصالح العامة العالمية؟

في السياسة الداخلية، توفر الحكومات المصالح العامة مثل حفظ الأمن والنظام أو البيئة النظيفة، والتي يستفيد منها كل المواطنين ولا يُستَبعَد منها أحد. وعلى المستوى العالمي، تعمل تحالفات تقودها القوى الأكبر حجما على توفير المصالح العامة ــ مثل المناخ المستقر، أو الاستقرار المالي، أو حرية البِحار.

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