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为什么选择特朗普?

华盛顿——不管其候选资格的最后结局怎样——即不管他能否赢得共和党提名甚或当选美国总统——美国和世界其他国家的民众都会长时间思考唐纳德·特朗普现象究竟是如何发生的。这种思考已经在进行中。

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首先必须说明谁来竞选美国总统与政党无关。事实上,美国政党实质是安排总统候选人选择流程并推动本党候选人在11月大选中获胜的一系列职能部门。

现实中的总统候选人是自由职业者。他们自主决定是否参选,而其竞选决策是基于他们所感知的(或许是民调结果显示的)自己的表现,以及他们能否筹措到必要的资金。

有些人可能单纯因为自负或贪婪而竞选总统。总统竞选所伴随的宣传甚至能使失败的候选人得到著作出版、电视演出或高薪主持合同(或以上三者兼而有之)。特朗普参选的基础是他的名声。作为著名开发商,他的名字铭刻于各种建筑物表面、掌握着庞大的个人财富,还一直是走红的黄金时段“真人秀”(美国流行文化磁石)明星。他知道美国的党派体制界限模糊到他可以自行决定是否参选,而且也没有什么党派结构能够阻止他。(至少如果他在今年夏天出席克里夫兰提名大会时没有找到足够的代表来保证自己获得提名,他是这样希望的。)

特朗普非常了解时代精神:他充分利用了工人阶级的愤怒——也就是从制造业主导向信息化主导的经济过渡过程中被落下的那些人。北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)等贸易协定对这批人的伤害最深,相关协定鼓励美国企业将工厂迁往墨西哥,并让那些选择留下的企业主有筹码来压低工资。

特朗普痛斥北美自由贸易协定,并承诺作为总统,他会在签署贸易协定时更多地考虑工人。此前,他把反移民情绪作为自己竞选活动的基础,并在启动竞选时用“强奸犯”和“凶手”来称呼墨西哥移民。

尽管特朗普现在仍然提到他发誓要在美墨边境上修建的荒谬的围墙(并信誓旦旦地让墨西哥为此买单),但他现在的重点已经转移到贸易领域。特朗普和希拉里·克林顿在民主党内的提名对手伯尼·桑德斯都不约而同地将贸易作为主要问题绝非仅仅是巧合。特朗普和桑德斯都在利用中产阶级的反抗情绪。构成桑德斯主要选民群体的大学应届毕业生失业率高达12%。而特朗普的绝大多数追随者可能并未上过大学,如果他们因为贸易协定而失去自己的工作——或者至少他们认为如此——他们也从未得到过曾经承诺为他们提供的再培训(或者他们所从事工作的工资已多年停滞)。

特朗普的竞选从一开始就具有明显的法西斯气息:强人将为自己的支持者打破阻碍他们前行的壁垒。他将仅凭纯粹的意志力来改善支持者们的生活。

当特朗普的支持者于去年11月在阿拉巴马州伯明翰举行的一次竞选集会上殴打一名黑人抗议者时,特朗普鼓励他们打得更狠些,并大喊“把他赶出去。”在这种情景及周围观众欣喜若狂的响应下,特朗普将这句话重复了好几遍,并在随后的集会上也时有提及。特朗普不像很多政界人士那样忽略抗议者,而是挑动人们关注抗议者,并企图藉此表明强人如何对待抗议。

激起暴力是特朗普获取力量的手段之一。如果他成为总统——现阶段这样的可能性不能排除——那么没有理由怀疑他会借暴力手段来保持权力。3月中旬在有计划的芝加哥集会现场爆发的暴力事件很可能不是偶然的:他们所选择的集会地点导致了这样的结果。特朗普将取消集会归功于自身,并且因为熟知媒体的工作流程,他在三大有线电视新闻网反复播放暴力镜头时都现身演播室接受访问。

现在争先恐后地阻止特朗普得到提名所需代表数的惊慌失措的共和党当权派可能因为分散和无效而难以成功。他们同时就是否阻止他参与大会而分歧不断,因为知道如果阻止他参加,可能会遭遇其追随者的反抗。就在几周前,一小撮共和党人开始调整观点,认为特朗普总统的想法也没有那么糟糕;但因为特朗普继续公然鼓动暴力,这样的支持很快又停止了。其他共和党人认为特朗普的民族主义、本土主义以及他对公共事务的无知使得他极具危险性。而现在,他们有理由担心没人能够阻止的这股势力已经被释放。

翻译:Xu Binbin

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