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Warum Trump?

NEW YORK – Auf meinen Auslandsreisen der letzten Wochen wurden mir wiederholt zwei Fragen gestellt: Ist es vorstellbar, dass Donald Trump US-Präsident werden könnte? Und wie konnte seine Kandidatur überhaupt so weit voranschreiten?

Was die erste Frage angeht, so sind zwar politische Prognosen sogar noch schwieriger als Wirtschaftsprognosen, doch stehen die Chancen für Hillary Clinton deutlich besser. Trotzdem ist die Knappheit des Rennen (zumindest bis in allerletzter Zeit) unverständlich: Clinton gehört zu den qualifiziertesten und bestvorbereiteten Kandidaten, die die USA je hatten, während Trump einer der am wenigsten qualifizierten und am schlechtesten vorbereiteten Kandidaten ist. Darüber hinaus hat Trumps Kampagne ein Verhalten Trumps überlebt, das in der Vergangenheit die Chancen jedes Kandidaten zunichte gemacht hätte.

Warum also spielen die Amerikaner russisches Roulette (denn genau das bedeutet selbst eine Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Wahlsiegs Trumps von eins zu sechs)? Die Menschen außerhalb der USA wollen die Antwort hierauf wissen, denn das Ergebnis betrifft auch sie, auch wenn sie es nicht beeinflussen können.

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