May at EU leaders summit Emmanual Dunand/Getty Images

La próxima tragedia del Brexit

LONDRES – Este año que se acaba todo cambió, excepto el modo de pensar de los gobiernos. En ningún sitio es esto más claro que en las negociaciones preparatorias del Brexit. En un contexto en que ambos bandos pasan por alto las consecuencias de amplio alcance de la elección de Donald Trump como presidente de Estados Unidos (concretamente, el declive del orden mundial liberal), el proceso parece encaminado a causar una tragedia tanto para el Reino Unido como para la Unión Europea.

A juzgar por la conducta de los diplomáticos de la Primera Ministra británica Theresa May, se podría creer que el Brexit hoy es la única incertidumbre real. De hecho, parecen convencidos de que su único imperativo –más allá de proteger la unidad del Partido Conservador, por supuesto- es conseguir tantos beneficios para el Reino Unido como sea posible.

Puesto que los negociadores del Brexit del gobierno suponen que pueden contar con un crecimiento global constante, se centran en conseguir un mayor trozo de pastel para el Reino Unido. Y ya que también suponen que el orden económico liberal internacional persistirá, esperan que una vez “liberado” de los grilletes de la UE, el Reino Unido encontrará socios ansiosos por firmar acuerdos de comercio con él. Finalmente, a los partidarios del Brexit les parecen importar poco las implicancias de seguridad de ir por su cuenta, porque suponen que Estados Unidos mantendrá su papel de policía global, por no mencionar la continuidad de la protección de la OTAN.

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