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حيل ترامب القذرة

Sep 3, 2020 Mark Leonard

برلين ـ مع اقتراب شهر نوفمبر/ تشرين الثاني، أصبحتُ أشد توتراً بشأن الانتخابات الرئاسية الأمريكية. بينما يركز أصدقائي الأمريكيون على تقدم جو بايدن على الرئيس الحالي دونالد ترامب في استطلاعات الرأي، إيمانًا منهم بقدرة الديمقراطية الأمريكية على التجديد الذاتي، فإن وجهة نظري كمواطن بريطاني ومدير مركز أبحاث تُثير قلقي.

بصفتي بريطانيًا، يمكنني أن أتذكر مشاهدة تقدم 20 نقطة في استطلاعات الرأي لصالح "البقاء" لتصبح فوزًا لصالح "المغادرة" في استفتاء خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي قبل أربع سنوات. وكمدير لمركز أبحاث، أعمل عن كثب مع الباحثين الذين يدرسون طرق تلاعب القادة الاستبداديين بالأنظمة الديمقراطية للبقاء في السلطة، كما حدث في تركيا وروسيا وهنغاريا وبولندا. في الواقع، غالبًا ما يبدو كما لو أن ترامب قد درس عن كثب التكتيكات التي ابتكرها رجال أقوياء طموحون أكثر من أي شخص آخر. بناءً على المحادثات الأخيرة مع الخبراء في هذه البلدان، قمت بتجميع القائمة التالية من التكتيكات والحيل القذرة التي يبدو أن ترامب يقوم باستخدامها.

يتمثل التكتيك الأول في استغلال التاريخ سياسيا. يروج القادة الشعبويون لبرامجهم السياسية من خلال الاستقطاب والانقسام الاجتماعي. فهم لا يمانعون إبعاد وإهانة بعض الناخبين إذا كان ذلك سيؤدي إلى تنشيط قاعدتهم. من خلال إظهار أنفسهم كأبطال للعظمة الوطنية، فإنهم يريدون تحديد من يُعتبر مواطنًا حقيقيًا ومن لا يُعتبر كذلك. هذه الممارسة تضع التاريخ حتمًا في المقدمة.

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Elizabeth Pula Sep 9, 2020

The ultimate of dirty tricks will be the DOJ defending the panderer for rape, and making the entire US population pay for it. Why? because his attorneys have depleted the usurpation of GOP free money. So now, the move is to the even bigger pile of OPM.
In the process, the results of this move, by these actors with no awareness of the differentiation of "role" and "position", will confirm the total degradation of the US Justice System, and US Constitution.
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Elizabeth Pula Sep 8, 2020

Democracy is definitely NOT following a panderer into the depths of darkness.
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alex Finch Sep 8, 2020

Look to Socialism in Europe to learn about Dirty Tricks. Bankrupt government businesses were sold to stock investors with the promise of reforms. And why hasn’t the Euro Stoxx 50 gained any value in 20 years? Because most industries in the EU are still being run by powerful unions and politicians, to the detriment of shareholders. Very few households in Europe now own stocks. Socialism is not the answer.
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Derek Festavan Sep 8, 2020

It’s human nature to exercise “1 upmanship” or “up the ante”. After the 2016 Hillary Clinton email scandal involving Peter Strzok, James Comey, dubious opposition research docs used to obtain FISA warrants (foundationally nonexistent threat), is there any wonder that they other party will then exact some retribution? Granted 2 wrongs don’t make it right, but it should be expected.
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toca Gomes Sep 7, 2020

A very good analysis. However, it is important to point out that traditional media has some responsibilities when people "prefer" fake-news" instead of listening what experts are saying because traditional paper did´n´ t care much about their problems. Indeed, most of the papers and TVs are the instruments of the powerful ones. That´s why they "refuse to believe anything the “liberal” media says"
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Leo Arouet Sep 6, 2020

Un buen artículo. TRUMP se ha convertido en algo más que un populista. Los trucos enumerados aquí por Mark son algunas de las cosas que pasan por la mente de Trump. De hecho, él ha atacado el sistema de voto por correo y ha ido disminuyendo el presupuesto para su correcto funcionamiento.
- P. Kamath Sep 7, 2020
  
  ¡Mi amigo! Las elecciones estadounidenses están a solo dos meses de distancia. Si Trump es elegido, las ondas de choque viajarán por todo el mundo. transmitirá el mensaje de que cada uno es para sí mismo. muy triste de verdad!
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Christine Constable Sep 6, 2020

Pleeeese. The approach to an election or to anything political is nothing less than the low standards we have come to expect from all political leaders. Putin killing opponents and trying to kill dissidents. The EU strangling free speech blotting out the Brexit debate in Europe so the Europeans can't see what dirty games they are playing against the UK. The toxic takeover of the media and social media in the USA by the woke left, so what if Trump defends his territory and says it like it is? While the EU argue about the threats of "State Aid" the Chinese are taking over the world using it. The whole thing is a nonsense. In the end the voter makes the choice - Boris Johnson was voted in because he was anti EU and pro democracy for millions of us that is enough. Sometimes you just have to isolate the policies which resonate with you. For Trump it is anti immigration and anti the Chinese swamping them with imports - that is a far stronger platform than anything the Democrats can come up with.
- P. Kamath Sep 7, 2020
  
  CHRISTINE CONSTABLE. : You are absolute entitled to express any view in PS. It appears from your statement , you are a dedicated member of BNP with admiration for authoritarian politicians. You may like to know that POTUS Trump has shown himself: an incompetent president, a constant lier, corrupt, racist, erratic, sociopath etc. He has wrought immense damage to US national interest. The list is long. For the good of the country, he must GO!
  
  BTW, No matter how much you watch North American edition of BBC or read select pages of Economist from across the Atlantic, you can not get a true picture of life in USA.
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David Donald Sep 6, 2020

Leonard provides a useful catalogue of dirty tricks, but he should note that most of them were formulated, practiced and honed domestically by the Southern states with their Jim Crow mission. While blacks are still a major target of election manipulation, the process has been expanded to stymie the poor generally and those few well-off still on their side.

The most dangerous 'dirty trick', however, was probably that formulated by economists, as from the 1970s people came to understand democracy as a market in which everyone should seek to maximize personal preferences. Once any search for the general good had been abandoned and moral behavior thoroughly demonized, it was only a matter of time before democracy started to fail. Now we can have a President calling people who sacrifice their lives to protect others "losers" while simultaneously receiving support from self-avowed Christians. It's the "self-interest, stupid," as one of our former modern Presidents would say.
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Bernhard Kopp Sep 6, 2020

Leonards writes " If Trump declares victory before all postal mail-in ballots have arrived, the Republican-controlled legislature in key states could end the counting early and lock in that outcome. " This is heavy stuff since it implies that Americans in some states are morally, politically and organizationally unwilling and unable to perform a watertight vote-counting process with all necessary checks and balances. I am unable to say if this is possible, but it were saddening if it were.
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Daniel Esmond Sep 5, 2020

Some really interesting and valid points. I would just like to add to point, one fairly straightforward, the other more speculative.
In Hungary and Poland (and up to a certain point in Turkey), a redistributive agenda, some interventionism in the economy and selective social policy measures were used to capture parts of the electorate and then develop a form of clientelism. After the 2008 recession, many Hungarians found themselves with large personal debt in foreign currencies and with a national currency losing value. The government steps in, uses pressure on banks, then raises revenue through unorthodox economic measures etc. and is seen to help people. Controls over utility companies and how much they charge consumers, increases in pensions, child support etc. consolidates the client base, with focus on rural and small cities in left-behind areas of the country. Some similar measures were taken in Poland, especially around young families and pensions. Erdogan implemented economic policies to support the emergence of new middle classes in Turkey, especially in the less developed areas of the country.
Whether one calls it clientelism or capturing a vulnerable part of the electorate through economic dependency, this strategy was very effective in securing the base. Obviously, it will be nearly impossible to determine the impact of these measures in the success of these regimes when compared to the other issues listed in the article. Trump doesn't really have this leaver, the tax cuts are not quite the same.
The second, more speculative issue that intrigued me for a long time is how both Hungary and Poland were testing grounds for some of the more radical changes that the right is now implementing in the US. Historically, both Hungary and Poland had very substantial Diasporas in the US, very active politically and radically anti-Communist. While they would lobby both Democrats and Republicans, there was alignment with the right. After the end of Communism, many in the leadership of the Diaspora became involved in home politics, pushing a right-wing, still anti-Communist agenda and contributing to the intellectual and ideological shift to the right in both countries. This shift has been more pronounced than in any other former Eastern Bloc countries and in the last decade or so, the same themes became visible as in the Alt-Right in the US. Occasionally, there were visible intersections (like Sebastian Gorka) with the US politics, but the groundwork was probably more discrete, more osmosis than direct implanting. However, the similarities are striking and worrying: it is one thing to see two minor countries in a non-critical area of the world going down this road, and something completely different if the US ends up a semi-authoritarian, illiberal, majoritarian dictatorship (whatever we call it), with no independent judiciary, oligarchic control of the economy, controlled media and an indoctrinated population, obsessing over paranoid, persecutory fantasies and with simmering resentments against minorities, neighbouring countries and liberals.
I feel inclined to say that the origin of the shift to the right in Poland and Hungary is largely the US, via Diaspora members (although not exclusively). Obviously, it took a life of its own and has a head start over its original location. The worrying part is the confirmation that this strategy works and it can now be fully rolled out back in the US.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 4, 2020

Mark Leonard is not the only one who is watching the upcoming US elections with trepidation. Trump has had a difficult period and is trailing his rival, Joe Biden. Poll after poll has showed that he is seemingly on course for a defeat in November. Seasoned analysts and commentators warn against complacency, because Trump still has time to fight back, and he will fight dirty for his political survival. Many lawsuits await him, once he returns to civilian life.
The author – a think-tank director of the European Council on Foreign Relations – works closely with scholars who study “how authoritarian leaders manipulate democratic systems to stay in power, as has happened in Turkey, Russia, Hungary, and Poland.” It is widely known that Trump has an affinity for dictators and authoritarian leaders. According to critics, “it often seems as though Trump has studied the tactics pioneered by other aspiring strongmen more closely than anyone.”
It comes as no surprise that Trump wants to cement his status as a veritable strongman, being in the same league as those autocrats and dictators he admires. The author says the “shameless” tricks Trump intends to borrow would still be “subtle” compared to those used by Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban, Poland’s de facto ruler, Jarosław Kaczyński, Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, and Putin.
First, this “weaponization of history” has been adopted by Trump, Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Viktor Orban, and even Boris Johnson in his Brexit campaign. Nationalist nostalgia helps polarise a nation in a globalised world, and divide the population. As populists, they “do not mind alienating and insulting some voters if doing so will energize their own base. By posturing as the champions of national greatness, they want to determine who counts as authentic citizens and who does not.”
Second, post-truth politics is a tool that appeals to emotion by disconnecting from truths, and by repeating the assertion of talking points, factual rebuttals are ignored. Under such circumstances objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than personal beliefs and emotions. Leaders “prefer direct communication with voters through professional propaganda videos and social media, because this allows them to dismiss inconvenient facts offered by experts. In this media ecosystem, fact-checking has little purchase, because the people who need to hear it are not listening, or refuse to believe anything the ‘liberal’ media says.”
Third is the demonisation of one’s own government, calling it a “deep state” – this term “is said to have originated in Turkey in the 1990s, but now features prominently in the lexicon for Trump, Orbán, Erdoğan, Johnson, and Kaczyński. By blaming nameless shadowy, faceless characters behind the curtain and shadowy cabals, all these leaders have a ready excuse for all of their own failures.”
Fourth, the playbook of voter suppression aims to create obstacles, making it difficult for certain voters to cast their ballots. “Like Erdoğan’s constant attempts to disempower Kurdish voters, Trump and the Republican Party are desperate to disenfranchise African-Americans. For an incumbent……the need to tip the electoral scales opens the door to all kinds of attacks on democratic processes.”
The author mentions the “device” of “political technology,” defining “the dirty tricks” commonly linked to post-Soviet politics. Russia’s “covert backing of third-party candidates like Jill Stein” in 2016 hurt Hillary Clinton; digging dirt on Joe Biden or his son, Hunter, releasing possible “Kompromat or compromising material” relating to Ukraine may still be on the table; or “simply declaring victory before the votes are counted….. if Trump declares victory before all postal mail-in ballots have arrived, Republican-controlled legislatures in key states could end the counting early to lock in that outcome.”
Another threat is that Trump, as incumbent – backed by his lapdog, Attorney General, Willam Barr – could use the law enforcement apparatus “or compliant courts to facilitate gerrymandering, voter suppression, cover-ups, and other violations of the democratic process. Here, one of the biggest advantages is the ability to control the timing of events or the release of politically damaging information.”
Trump is already captitalising on the wave of anti-racism protests to add more fuel to the fire, encouraging his supporters to clash with peaceful protesters, so that he can play the “law-and-order” card that Richard Nixon and Erdogan used.
Democrats find themselves in a dilemma, because these tricks “tend to become more effective the more they are called out. Fact-checking fake news can inadvertently spread misinformation more widely. Warnings about voter suppression can become self-fulfilling prophecies if enough people conclude that the process is rigged and not worth participating in.”
It is crucial to act appropriately, and “the project of corrupting democracy needs to be clearly identified, named, and analyzed through a new lens.” The author says the above-mentioned tricks pale in comparison to “outright falsification of election results, as happened last month in in Belarus.” Nicu Popescu, a former Moldovan foreign minister….says “autocracy is not the right term to describe the phenomenon.” Rather, “it is the “degradation, corrosion, and deconsolidation of democracy.”
The only way to counter Trump’s dirty tricks effectively is to defeat him through politics. Elections can only regain their legitimacy, when voters are reminded of what democracy stands for. Despite the polls, Democrats can not afford to be complacent, especially among younger voters who might decide to stay at home on a rainy day and not get around to voting.
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Giorgio Negro Sep 3, 2020

Mussolini also did the same by invoking the glory of the Roman Empire and adopting its symbols.
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Chris S Sep 3, 2020

"The only way to defeat Trump is through politics" is a curious statement in an essay about how politics is destroying democracy. I would suggest the way to defeat Trump is through policy. Remind voters what Obama did right. Remind them what Trump is doing, and has done, wrong. What did he promise to do? Did he do it? Has what he has accomplished made people's lives better?

Conveying the message is politics. Constructing the right message is the much harder part.
- Laurie McGinness Sep 4, 2020
  
  No, constructing the policy is the essential feature of politics. Conveying it is strategy. Democrats, in the generic sense, tend to be good at policy but bad at strategy. The reverse is true for their opponents.
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Michael Public Sep 3, 2020

Just a thought: What would a civil war in the United States look like in 2020? It boggles the mind to imagine the different ways it play out - many being too destructively ugly to imagine.
- Kerry Pechter Sep 10, 2020
  
  In my small Pennsylvania town, men with long guns twice lingered around the perimeter of Black Lives Matter rallies, and a family with a Black Lives Matter sign on their lawn was pelted with firecrackers by a man and his daughter. There are news reports of purchases of millions of rounds of ammunition from a single gun shop in Oregon. People are rightly nervous about Trump instigating white militia reprisals if he loses in November. Two of my wife's friends have purchased handguns in the past month. There will be blood.
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- Elizabeth Pula Sep 8, 2020
  
  To answer your question my. dear Man, You/we are looking at it, loud and clear. You are right in the middle of it, just in case, you didn't know it. To make my self even more obvious, my hint is take a few looks at the picture at the top of this page on PS, provided the present photo is NOT replaced with another photo of two different people.
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- Marc Laventurier Sep 3, 2020
  
  Naw, what we have here is 'culture war', reflecting the spectrum of human character ranging from, mainly, the 22% said to be 'authoritarian' to the gifted 2% subspecies that used to migrate to Berkeley before the dumbed down mass products of late capitalism caught the bug but lost the deeper cultural plot. The west coast SHOULD leave the 'union' to its' own devices (guns). Properly re-imagined, the University of California system alone could lead the world, and manage the Hoover Institution as as a lab for its' sublime bio-science research, as a sort of Island of Dr. Moreau producing a persuasive leadership class for the remaining 46 'states' (dibs on HI) and laughing all the way to the bank. Yes, California Über Alles. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIqESwzCGg4
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