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战胜美元

伦敦——美元相对于其他主要货币的轨迹是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普当选七个月以来最引人瞩目的事态发展。在特朗普胜选初期的大幅飙升后,美元价值在4月份开始下滑。

相关原因存在各种各样的解释。其中之一是人们普遍预期的特朗普经济增长计划尚未兑现,而且没有可能从国会通过。另一个原因是世界其他国家,尤其是欧元区,自从特朗普当选后经济表现均好于预期。

数十年来我深知外汇市场的复杂性,因此我知道假设人能了解所有因素是愚蠢的。但除了对当今趋势的周期性解释外,第三种解释已经变得越来越明确:市场已经融入了对美元的风险溢价,用来解释特朗普总统任期所带来的不确定因素。

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