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美国和世界的转型

纽约——在不到两个月的时间里,美国的政治转型即将结束了。第45届美国总统将入主椭圆形办公室。当选总统唐纳德·特朗普将成为特朗普总统;巴拉克·奥巴马总统则将与吉米·卡特、乔治·H·W·布什、比尔·克林顿和乔治·W·布什一道成为仍然在世的前总统。

关于特朗普可能的国内国外政策的猜测多如牛毛,但其中没有多少是真有意义的。竞选和执政是两种完全不同的行为,没有理由以特朗普处理前者的方式来确定后者。我们也还不知道主要顾问是谁以及他们将以何种方式合作(以及合作的成效如何)。

但在所有这些不确定性中,有些事情我们是确定知道的。首先是塞满高难度国际挑战的收件箱将会等待着特朗普。可以肯定,没有哪个问题能与巅峰时期的冷战相媲美,但单是困难问题的数量和复杂性就是现代以来史无前例的。

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