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特朗普的增长游戏

华盛顿—特朗普总统的政府官员们常说要让美国经济增长重回3%上方。但他们可不只是说说而已;他们提出的预算真的假设他们能取得成功。

如果真的成功的话,这将是在近期表现基础上的重大改善:自2000年以来,美国年均经济增长不到2%。尽管增长提高到3%看上去增幅有限,但就业和工资局面将大为不同。

不幸的是,放任自流的话,经济更有可能继续恶化。而特朗普的共和党所提出的政策——包括医疗、税收和去监管化等方面——无法带来多少改观。增长提高的假设更多地是为了推行减税而打出的会计烟幕弹。如果政府官员承认,3%的年增长率根本不可行,他们就需要面对一个事实:他们对税收收入的预测太高了,而他们想要实施的减税政策将大大增加预算赤字和国民债务。

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