china trade Kevin Frayer/Stringer

¿Arroja resultados abordar los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales?

CAMBRIDGE – Los políticos y los economistas ven los desequilibrios comerciales de manera muy distinta. Considere el déficit comercial de Estados Unidos. Los economistas enfatizan que el déficit comercial total de Estados Unidos con el resto del mundo es el resultado de políticas y acciones en el propio país. En pocas palabras, si Estados Unidos invierte más de lo que este mismo país en su conjunto ahorra, debe importar la diferencia del resto del mundo, con lo que crea el déficit comercial existente.

Pero los políticos (y el público en general) tienden a centrarse en los déficits comerciales bilaterales con países individuales, como por ejemplo el desequilibrio de US$ 300.000 millones entre Estados Unidos y China. Culpan por este déficit bilateral a las políticas chinas que bloquean las importaciones de productos estadounidenses y subsidian las exportaciones chinas a Estados Unidos.

Los economistas explican que esas políticas afectan la composición del desequilibrio comercial de Estados Unidos, pero no su tamaño. Si China cambiaría sus políticas comerciales de manera que se reduzca el déficit bilateral, se aumentaría el déficit comercial de Estados Unidos con algún otro país o se reduciría su superávit con algún otro país. Sin embargo, el déficit comercial general de Estados Unidos con el mundo no cambiaría.

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