china trade Kevin Frayer/Stringer

La Lotta agli Squilibri Commerciali Bilaterali Funziona?

CAMBRIDGE – I politici e gli economisti hanno una visione degli squilibri commerciali molto diversa. Si consideri il deficit commerciale degli Stati Uniti. Gli economisti sottolineano che il deficit commerciale totale statunitense rispetto al resto del mondo è il risultato di politiche ed azioni domestiche. In poche parole, se gli Stati Uniti investono più di quanto il paese nel suo complesso risparmia, devono importare la differenza dal resto del mondo, creando il deficit commerciale esistente.

Ma i politici (e il grande pubblico) tendono a concentrarsi sui disavanzi commerciali bilaterali con i singoli paesi, come lo squilibrio di 300 miliardi di dollari tra Stati Uniti e Cina. Essi danno la colpa del deficit bilaterale alle politiche cinesi che bloccano le importazioni di prodotti statunitensi e sovvenzionano le esportazioni cinesi negli Stati Uniti.

Gli economisti spiegano che queste politiche influenzano la composizione dello squilibrio commerciale degli Stati Uniti, ma non la sua dimensione. Se la Cina cambiasse le sue politiche commerciali in modo da ridurre il disavanzo bilaterale, si avrebbe un incremento del disavanzo commerciale statunitense con un altro paese, o una diminuzione del surplus rispetto ad un altro paese. Il disavanzo commerciale complessivo degli Stati Uniti con il mondo, tuttavia, non cambierebbe.

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