china trade Kevin Frayer/Stringer

调整贸易失衡的举措能奏效吗?

发自剑桥——政治家和经济学家对贸易失衡的看法是大不相同的。以美国的贸易赤字为例,经济学家强调,美国与世界其他地区的贸易逆差是本国政策及行动的结果。简而言之,如果美国的投资额超过整个国家的储蓄额,就必须从世界其他地区输入资金来填补两者之间的缺口,也就造就了当前的贸易逆差。

但政治家(和大众)倾向于抓住美国与个别国家之间的双边贸易赤字不放,比如美中两国的3000亿美元逆差。他们把双边赤字归咎于中国一面限制美国产品进口一面补贴对美出口的政策。

经济学家对此解释说,这些政策只是影响了美国贸易失衡的内部构成,却不会影响其规模。如果中国用减少双边赤字的方式来改变贸易政策,美国与其他国家之间的贸易赤字就会增加,或是相对其他国家的盈余会下降。但相对全世界的美国整体贸易赤字并不会发生改变。

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