Alex Wong/Getty Images

Macht die Fed Politik?

CAMBRIDGE – In der Fernsehdebatte mit seiner Gegnerin Hillary Clinton behauptete der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei Donald Trump vor kurzem, die Präsidentin der US-Notenbank Janet Yellen sei politisch motiviert. Die US-Notenbank, so Trump, wende eine Überdosis an geldpolitischen Anreizen an, um die Wähler zu hypnotisieren und sie Glauben zu machen, eine Erholung der Wirtschaft sei im vollen Gange.

Es ist keine vollständig wirre Idee, aber ich kann es trotzdem nicht nachvollziehen. Wenn Yellen so entschlossen wäre, die Zinssätze im Tiefkühlfach zu belassen, warum hat sie dann in den vergangenen Monaten versucht, längerfristige Sätze herbeizureden, indem sie darauf bestand, dass die Notenbank die Sätze wahrscheinlich schneller anhebt als der Markt zurzeit glaubt?

Es ist natürlich schon vorgekommen, dass Zentralbanker Amtsinhabern vor Wahlen geholfen haben, indem sie zuließen, dass die Inflationsrate steigt und der Beschäftigungsmarkt boomt. Präsident Nixon hat den Notenbankchef Arthur Burns während seiner Wiederwahlkampagne von 1972 unerbittlich belehrt, die Wirtschaft müsse angekurbelt werden, damit er seinen demokratischen Herausforderer George McGovern schlagen könne. Nixon gewann mit einem hohen Vorsprung, aber die Maßnahmen von Burns haben dazu beigetragen, die weltweite Inflation der 1970er in Gang zu setzen und letztlich zu einem Zusammenbruch des Nachkriegssystems der festen Wechselkurse geführt. Die langfristigen Auswirkungen waren katastrophal.

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