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美联储在玩政治吗?

美国剑桥—在最近与对手希拉里·克林顿的辩论中,共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普表达了他的观点:美联储主席耶伦有政治动机。特朗普说,美联储用过度货币刺激催眠选民,让他们相信经济正在复苏。

这并不是十足的疯狂观念,但我没有看到这一点。如果耶伦决心要深度冻结利率,为什么还要在最近几个月中一直坚持美联储可能比市场目前所认为的更早提高利率,以此引导长期利率升高?

当然,周所周知,央行行长在选举前总是会助现任一臂之力,允许通货膨胀略微提高,保持就业繁荣。在1972年尼克松总统连任选战期间,他严厉训诫美联储主席亚瑟·伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)要向经济中注资助其击败民主党挑战者乔治·麦戈文(George McGovern)。尼克松最后大获全胜,但伯恩斯的政策导致了20世纪70年代的世界性通胀,也让战后固定汇率体系走向崩溃。长期影响是灾难性的。

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