平衡的美国

美国剑桥—1982年,当美国经常项目陷入赤字时,美国经济顾问委员会(US Council of Economic Advisers)准确地预测出多年后创纪录的赤字,经常项目赤字的原因包括预算赤字、低国民储蓄率和美元高估。学富五车的预测者指出,如果美国不调整,它将从世界最大债权国变为最大债务国。我们中有许多人担心这些失衡不可持续,有可能以美元的“硬着陆”告终——如果全球投资者不再愿意持有美元的话。

负债预言是正确的。事实上,在过去三十多年中,每年美国经济分析局(US Bureau of Economic Analysis,BEA)都记录到经常项目赤字。而如今,我们必须问问美国的经常项目赤字是否仍然是个问题

首先,全球投资者在2008年响亮而明确地宣告他们并不担心美国赤字的可持续性。全球金融危机爆发后,他们争相买入美元资产,丝毫不顾美国正是危机的发源地。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To access our archive, please log in or register now and read two articles from our archive every month for free. For unlimited access to our archive, as well as to the unrivaled analysis of PS On Point, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/0UQ7JU7/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.