أميركا المتوازنة

Oct 20, 2014 Jeffrey Frankel

كمبريدج ــ عندما انخفض الحساب الجاري في الولايات المتحدة إلى حد العجز في عام 1982، توقع مجلس المستشارين الاقتصاديين في الولايات المتحدة بدقة عجزاً غير مسبوق لسنوات عديدة، وذلك بسبب عجز الميزانية، وانخفاض معدل الادخار الوطني، والدولار المبالغ في تقدير قيمته. وأكد المتنبئون المخضرمون أن الولايات المتحدة إذا لم توفق أوضاعها فقد تتحول من الدائن الأكبر على مستوى العالم إلى المدين الأكبر على الإطلاق. وأعرب كثيرون مِنّا عن خشيتهم من أن هذه الاختلالات في التوازن غير قابلة للاستمرار، وأنها قد تنتهي إلى "الهبوط الحاد" للدولار إذا سأم المستثمرون العالميون من الاحتفاظ به.

وكانت توقعات المديونية صحيحة. بل إن تقارير مكتب التحليل الاقتصادي في الولايات المتحدة أشارت في كل عام على مدى ثلاثة عقود من الزمان إلى عجز في الحساب الجاري. ولكن يتعين علينا الآن رغم هذا أن نسأل أنفسنا ما إذا كان عجز الحساب الجاري في الولايات المتحدة لا يزال يمثل مشكلة.

بادئ ذي بدء، أعلن المستثمرون العالميون بوضوح في عام 2008 أنهم لا يشعرون بالقلق إزاء استدامة العجز في الولايات المتحدة. وعندما اندلعت الأزمة المالية العالمية، انغمسوا في الأصول الدولارية، حتى برغم أن الأزمة نشأت في الولايات المتحدة.

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Heenam Choi Oct 25, 2014

I think the best to make sure Jeffrey's argument is to urge the US to adopt BPM6 (balance of payment methodology 2006 suggested by the IMF), which takes into a consideration of multinational's retained earnings.
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Jose araujo Oct 22, 2014

I don't know, but reading the article it kind of looks that the author believes money has a country...

Does the nationality of the money really matters? Do you think that if the US was in trouble the money invested in other countries would flow to America?

Do you really think that Chinese and Emirates money will ever flight back?
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Paul Daley Oct 22, 2014

This is an argument for a better accounting for capital internationally, if only to still economic fears and forestall bad policy. Financial registries that tracked the value and beneficial ownership of all assets would certainly help.
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Kir Komrik Oct 20, 2014

While some would rather not discuss it explicitly, the fundamental relation (or ratio) of currency created to existing wealth, and the rate changes in both, are not quaint theoretical constructs. While our attempts to match those rate changes may be in error to an order of approximation, the fundamental reality that healthy economies track a ratio of unity is quite real. When the U.S. dollar penetrates other economies, through economic expansion (particularly in sourcing wealth) as well as by virtue of holding a reserve currency, increased currency production constitutes a "loan" to the global economic landscape. But a loan in this sense is merely a wealth generator. So, by a more fundamental argument, I agree with the author that the "U.S." debt is over-stated; not because it doesn't exist but because it is a global debt of sorts. That's why investors don't mind.

In what currency wealth is denominated matters because it affects the rate change in aggregate currency in circulation (electronic or otherwise) indicated by the reality of the rate change in wealth. This is why the Fed has been able to engage so much promissory-based account crediting in the last few years without runaway inflation in the States.

As I predicted, the global economy must slow down consequent to this practice (high intensity global trade with the States in which currency leaves and wealth arrives). Combined with the increased production of petroleum in the States, we can expect a widening of economic outcomes between the United States and the rest of the global economy for some time to come, but Fed policy will as a result begin to track the rate change unique to wealth in the United States more closely in future.

That's my two cents, anyway.

- kk (kirkomrik.wordpress.com)
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أميركا المتوازنة

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