Die Krisenprobe

WARSCHAU – Ereignisse wie die aktuelle Finanzkrise stellen eine ernsthafte Behinderung des Wirtschaftswachstums dar. Aber die Frage, die wir uns stellen sollten, betrifft die Auswirkungen solcher Ereignisse auf die längerfristige Entwicklung. Und diese Frage hat bisher überraschend wenig Interesse hervorgerufen.

Herkömmliche Wachstumstheorien konzentrieren sich auf systematische Kräfte – zum Beispiel Kapitalbildung, Beschäftigung und technischen Wandel – die per definitionem immer wirken, wenn auch mit unterschiedlicher Intensität. Einige Theorien beschäftigen sich auch mit zugrunde liegenden institutionellen Faktoren wie Eigentumsrechten, Wettbewerb auf dem Markt, Steuer- und Regelungsaufwand und dem Grad der Rechtsstaatlichkeit.

Ein weiterer Forschungsstrang behandelt das Krisenmanagement, aber ohne eine Untersuchung der Folgen für langfristiges Wachstum. Im Fall einer Finanzkrise beinhaltet dies normalerweise steuerliche und monetäre Erleichterungen sowie Rettungspakete für größere Finanzinstitute. Der gängige Ansatz beim Krisenmanagement war bisher kurzfristig und beruhte, wie in dieser letzten Krise zur Genüge bewiesen wurde, auf dem, was ich eine sachlich gerechtfertigte Interventionsdoktrin nenne.

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