TPP Protests Phil Walter/Getty Images

El juego engañoso del acuerdo Transpacífico

ROMA – Se describe al Acuerdo Transpacífico de Cooperación Económica (TPP) como un regalo caído del cielo para todos los 12 países involucrados. Sin embargo, la oposición a dicho acuerdo puede que sea el único tema sobre el cual concuerden los candidatos presidenciales estadounidenses que aún están en carrera; asimismo, el ministro de comercio de Canadá ha expresado serias reservas al respecto. ¿Están siendo poco razonables los críticos del TPP?

La respuesta en una sola palabra es no. Sin lugar a duda, el TPP podría ayudar a que EE.UU. avance en el logro de su objetivo de contener la influencia de China en la región Asia-Pacífico, situación que se ejemplifica en la declaración del presidente de Estados Unidos Barack Obama en la que dice que: “con el TPP, China no establece las reglas en dicha región; nosotros las establecemos”. Sin embargo, los argumentos económicos no son, ni de lejos, tan fuertes. De hecho, si bien el TPP traerá consigo algunas ganancias, en su mayoría las grandes corporaciones serán las que las acumulen, y dichas ganancias llegarán a expensas de los ciudadanos de a pie.

En términos de ganancias, un estudio del Gobierno de Estados Unidos sobre el tema proyectó que, hasta el año 2025, el TPP aumentaría el crecimiento del PIB de sus países miembros en un magro 0,1%, como máximo. Más recientemente, la Comisión de Comercio Internacional (CCI) estimó que, hasta el año 2032, el TPP aumentaría el crecimiento económico de Estados Unidos en un 0,15% ($42,7 mil millones) y acrecentaría los ingresos en un 0,23% ($57,3 mil millones).

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