TPP Protests Phil Walter/Getty Images

Le tour de passe-passe du partenariat transpacifique

ROME – L’accord de partenariat transpacifique (TPP) est dépeint comme une bénédiction pour les 12 pays concernés. Mais l’opposition à l’accord est sans doute la seule question sur laquelle s’entendent les deux candidats encore dans la course à la présidence des États-Unis, et même le ministre du Commerce du Canada a émis de sérieuses réserves sur le bien-fondé de l’accord. Ces critiques du TPP sont-elles exagérées ?

En bref, non. Il est certain que le TPP peut aider les États-Unis à atteindre l’objectif de restreindre l’influence de la Chine dans la région de l’Asie-Pacifique, tel qu’incarné dans la déclaration du président américain Barack Obama qui précise, « qu’avec le TPP, ce n’est pas la Chine qui établit les règles dans la région ; mais les États-Unis ». Or, l’argument économique n’est pas aussi tranché. En fait, même si le TPP apportera des avantages, ils seront en grande partie engrangés par les grandes sociétés aux frais des simples citoyens.

Au chapitre des gains, une étude de l’administration américaine sur le sujet projette que, d’ici 2025, le TPP augmenterait la croissance du PIB des pays membres d’un maigre 0,1 % dans le meilleur des cas. Plus récemment, la Commission internationale du commerce (ITC) des États-Unis a estimé que, d’ici 2032, le TPP augmenterait la croissance économique des États-Unis de 0,15 % (42,7 milliards $) et stimulerait les revenus de 0,23 % (57,3 milliards $).

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