TPP Protests Phil Walter/Getty Images

跨太平洋把戏

罗马—跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)贸易协定被描述为是对所有12个参与国的恩惠。但反对该协定也许是目前剩下的美国总统候选人唯一达成共识的问题,而加拿大贸易部长也对该协定表示严重保留。TPP的批评者是否毫无道理?

一言以蔽之,否。诚然,TPP也许有助于美国推进其遏制中国在东亚地区影响力的目标,其总统奥巴马的宣告就是明证:“有了TPP,制定地区规则的就不再是中国了;是我们。”但经济理由就不那么强烈了。事实上,尽管TPP将带来一些收益,但主要是对大企业而言,并且这些收益要以普通公民为代价。

说到收益,一项美国政府对该问题的研究预测,到2025年,TPP最多只能让其成员国GDP增长提高0.1%。此后,美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)估算,到2032年,TPP将让美国经济增长提高0.15%(4,270亿美元),收入提高0.23%(5,730亿美元)。

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