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日益增大的2020年衰退和危机风险

发自纽约——去年夏天,我的同事布鲁奈罗·罗萨(Brunello Rosa)和我定义出了10个可能在2020年引发美国和全球经济衰退的潜在下行风险。其中有9个在今时今日仍然存在。

这些风险中有好几个都涉及美国。与中国及其他国家的贸易战,再加上对移民,外国直接投资和技术转让的限制,都可能对全球供应链产生深远影响,增加经济陷入滞胀的威胁(增长放缓同时通胀上升)。随着2017年税收立法的刺激措施稳步落实,美国经济增长放缓的风险也变得更为严峻。

与此同时,自我们最初定义风险之后,美国股市一直维持着泡沫状态。同时还存在与新形式债务增长相关的附加风险,包括许多大量借款以外币计价的新兴市场。随着中央银行作为最后贷款人的能力日益受限,流动性不足的金融市场极易受到“闪电式崩溃”和其他破坏因素的影响。美国总统特朗普可能也会引发一场类似的破坏,而他可能会想与像伊朗这样的国家制造外交政策危机(“转移视线”)。这虽然有助于支撑其国内民众支持率,但也可能引发一场石油冲击。

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