Felixstowe UK Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Verdades comerciales para trumpianos y defensores del Brexit

LONDRES – Este es un golpe de realidad para los responsables de las políticas en Gran Bretaña y Estados Unidos, y para los muchos expertos que frecuentemente hacen comentarios sobre el comercio mundial sin entender sus realidades: los datos sobre las exportaciones e importaciones totales de Alemania en 2016 indican que su principal socio comercial ahora es China. Francia y Estados Unidos han sido relegados al segundo y tercer puesto.

Esta noticia no debería ser una sorpresa. Muchas veces he reflexionado que, en 2020, las empresas (y los responsables de las políticas) alemanes podrían preferir una unión monetaria con China que con Francia, considerando que el comercio germano-chino probablemente seguiría creciendo.

Y así sucedió, impulsado principalmente por las exportaciones chinas a Alemania. Sin embargo, las exportaciones alemanas a China también han venido aumentando. Más allá de una reciente desaceleración, Alemania pronto podría exportar más a China que a Francia, su vecino y socio crucial, y ya exporta más a China que a Italia. Para los exportadores alemanes, Francia y el Reino Unido son los únicos mercados nacionales europeos más grandes que China.

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