Felixstowe UK Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Le verità sul commercio secondo trumpiani e brexiteer

LONDRA – È arrivato il momento di fare i conti con la realtà per i politici americani e britannici, e per tutti quegli esperti che soventemente esprimono un giudizio sul commercio mondiale senza comprendere lo stato attuale delle cose: i dati sulle esportazioni e sulle importazioni totali della Germania nel 2016 indicano ora come maggiore partner commerciale la Cina. Francia e Stati Uniti sono stati spinti in seconda e terza posizione.

Questa notizia non dovrebbe sorprendere. Spesso mi sono chiesto se, entro il 2020, le società (e i politici) tedeschi preferiranno un’unione monetaria con la Cina piuttosto che con la Francia, considerata la potenziale crescita del commercio sino-tedesco.

Che di fatto è cresciuto, guidato soprattutto dalle esportazioni cinesi verso la Germania. Ma registrano un incremento anche le esportazioni tedesche verso la Cina. A prescindere dal recente rallentamento, la Germania potrebbe presto esportare più verso la Cina che verso la Francia, importante paese vicino e partner, ed esporta già più verso la Cina che verso l’Italia. Per gli esportatori tedeschi, la Francia e il Regno Unito sono gli unici mercati nazionali europei più grandi della Cina.

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