Felixstowe UK Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Quelques vérités sur le commerce à l’usage des partisans de Trump et du Brexit

LONDRES – Voici une piqure de réalisme pour les décideurs britanniques et américains, ainsi que pour les nombreux experts qui commentent souvent le commerce mondial sans comprendre ses réalités: les données sur les exportations et importations totales de l'Allemagne en 2016 indiquent que son principal partenaire commercial est désormais la Chine. La France et les Etats-Unis ont été relégués à la deuxième et troisième place.

Cette nouvelle ne devrait pas être surprise. Il m’est souvent arrivé de penser que, d'ici 2020, les entreprises (et les décideurs) allemands pourraient préférer une union monétaire avec la Chine plutôt qu’avec la France, étant donné que le commerce germano-chinois continuerait probablement à croître.

Et c’est bien ce qui s’est passé, principalement en raison de la vigueur des exportations chinoises vers l'Allemagne. Mais les exportations allemandes vers la Chine ont également augmenté. Malgré un récent ralentissement, l'Allemagne pourrait bientôt exporter davantage vers la Chine que vers son voisin et partenaire crucial qu’est la France, et elle exporte déjà plus vers la Chine que vers l’Italie. Pour les exportateurs allemands, la France et le Royaume-Uni sont les seuls marchés nationaux européens plus grands que celui de la Chine.

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