Prosperidad comercializable

MILÁN – La economía mundial está padeciendo un grave problema en materia de crecimiento. Muchos países avanzados están intentando reavivar el crecimiento sostenible ante una economía mundial en desaceleración, pero las dificultades de los países varían. En particular, los sectores comercializable y no comercializable de diversas economías difieren en gran medida.

En el sector no comercializable (entre el 60 y el 70 por ciento de la economía de los países avanzados), los mayores inhibidores del crecimiento son una demanda débil, como en los Estados Unidos a raíz de la crisis financiera, y los impedimentos estructurales y competitivos a la productividad, como en el Japón. En el sector comercializable, el crecimiento depende de la productividad de un país en relación con los ingresos y la competitividad. En el nivel mundial puede haber también escasez de una demanda agregada en el sector comercializable.

El economista y premio Nobel Robert Solow ha mostrado que el crecimiento procede de tres fuentes: la población trabajadora, la inversión de capital y el progreso tecnológico. Una población joven en aumento contribuye a mantener el equilibrio fiscal y garantizar la equidad intergeneracional, pero por sí misma no aumenta los ingresos. Por otra parte, un crecimiento económico por debajo de la suma del crecimiento de la población trabajadora y del ahorro de trabajo que entraña el cambio tecnológico contribuye al desempleo.

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