Une prospérité échangeable

MILAN – L’économie mondiale fait actuellement face à un défi majeur en matière de croissance. De nombreux pays développés tentent de relancer une croissance durable dans le contexte d’une économie mondiale au ralenti. Cependant, les difficultés ne sont pas les mêmes pour tous les pays. En particulier, les éléments échangeables et non échangeables diffèrent considérablement d’une économie à l’autre.

Dans le secteur des biens non échangeables (qui représente 60 à 70% de l’économie dans les pays développés), comptent parmi les principaux freins à la croissance la faiblesse de la demande, comme aux États-Unis après la crise financière, et les obstacles structurels et concurrentiels à la productivité, comme au Japon. Dans le secteur des biens échangeables, la croissance dépend de la productivité d’un pays par rapport aux revenus et à la compétitivité. Au niveau mondial, il peut également exister une insuffisance de la demande du côté des biens échangeables.

L’économiste et lauréat du prix Nobel Robert Solow a démontré que la croissance reposait sur trois piliers : la population active, l’investissement de capitaux, et les progrès de la technologie. La population croissante de la jeunesse contribue à maintenir un équilibre budgétaire et à garantir l’équité entre les générations, mais elle n’accroît pas les revenus à elle seule. D’un autre côté, une croissance économique inférieure à la somme de la croissance de la population active, et la tendance du secteur technologique à réduire les effectifs, alimentent le chômage.

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