Ship port trade horizon TPP US Department of Agriculture/Flickr

TPP能帮助拉丁美洲吗?

圣地亚哥—国际货币基金组织(IMF)刚刚连续第五年降低了拉丁美洲经济增长预测,该地区各国正在竭力寻找重振投资和刺激生产率的办法。跨太平洋贸易合作伙伴关系(Transpacific Trade Partnership,TPP)支持者认为,它们应该把目光转向高速增长的亚洲。TPP是一项正在讨论中的贸易协定,包括12个环太平洋国家。果真如此吗?

如果处置得当,TPP能够帮助墨西哥、秘鲁和智利——该协定的拉美成员国——实现基于创新的搞生产率出口激增。但这需要TPP促进而不是阻碍环太平洋的知识流动。遗憾的是,美国坚持要在TPP中加入一系列有利于美国企业但无助于为其他地区创新建立可靠环境的只是产权条款。这一点需要改变——尽快改变——以使维持多年的谈判最终成功。

三个拉美TPP成员国所面临的增长挑战大相径庭。过去二十年中,墨西哥成功地实现了出口基础多样化,现在已成为美国和加拿大工业品的主要提供者之一。坏消息是墨西哥的增长前景极其依赖于其规模庞大的北方邻国。好消息是美国正在以比其他任何主要工业化经济体都要快的速度增长,因此墨西哥可以期待——根据IMF的数据——未来几年实现经济扩张加速。

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