Numbers

Il gioco dei numeri nel commercio

CAMBRIDGE – Il Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), un mega accordo commerciale tra 12 Paesi che insieme rappresentano oltre un terzo del Pil globale e un quarto delle esportazioni mondiali, è l’ultimo campo di battaglia nel decennale scontro tra sostenitori e oppositori degli accordi commerciali.

Come al solito, i fautori del TPP hanno preparato modelli quantitativi che fanno sembrare l’accordo un gioco da ragazzi. Il modello preferito prevede aumenti dei redditi reali dopo 15 anni che vanno dallo 0,5% per gli Stati Uniti all’8% in Vietnam. Inoltre, questo modello, sviluppato da Peter Petri e Michael Plummer, rispettivamente dell’università Brandeis e Johns Hopkins, che si fonda su una lunga serie di strutture simili sviluppate da loro e da altri esperti, prevede un costo piuttosto esiguo in termini di occupazione per i settori colpiti.

Chi si oppone al TPP si aggrappa a un modello concorrente, che genera proiezioni molto diverse. Prodotto da Jeronim Capaldo dell’Università Tufts e Alex Izurieta della Conferenza Onu sul commercio e sullo sviluppo (insieme a Jomo Kwame Sundaram, ex Vice Segretario generale Onu), questo modello prevede salari più bassi e una disoccupazione generale più elevata, oltre a un calo dei redditi in due Paesi rilevanti, Stati Uniti e Giappone.

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