和往常一样,该协议的支持者拿出量化模型,让这一协议看上去应该获得无脑支持。他们最喜欢用的模型预测,15年后真实收入将上升0.5%(美国)到8%(越南)不等。此外,该模型——由分别来自布兰迪斯大学(Brandeis University)和约翰霍普金斯大学的彼得·彼特里(Peter Petri)和迈克尔·普卢默(Michael Plummer)提出,基于他们和其他学者的众多类似框架——预测,受影响行业的就业损失相对较小。

TPP的反对者提出了一个针锋相对的模型,做出了截然不同的预测。该模型由塔夫茨大学(Tufts University)的杰罗尼母·卡帕尔多(Jeronim Capaldo)和联合国贸易与发展会议的亚历克斯·伊祖里耶塔(Alex Izurieta)以及前联合国助理秘书长约莫·基瓦姆·桑德拉姆(Jomo Kwame Sundaram)提出,预测TPP成员国都将出现工资下降和事业上升,两大关键国家美国和日本的收入也会下降。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.