Numbers

贸易数字游戏

坎布里奇—几十年来,自由贸易支持派和反对派争论不断,跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)是这一争论的最新战场。TPP由12个国家组成,它们加起来占了三分之一以上的全球GDP和四分之一的世界贸易。

和往常一样,该协议的支持者拿出量化模型,让这一协议看上去应该获得无脑支持。他们最喜欢用的模型预测,15年后真实收入将上升0.5%(美国)到8%(越南)不等。此外,该模型——由分别来自布兰迪斯大学(Brandeis University)和约翰霍普金斯大学的彼得·彼特里(Peter Petri)和迈克尔·普卢默(Michael Plummer)提出,基于他们和其他学者的众多类似框架——预测,受影响行业的就业损失相对较小。

TPP的反对者提出了一个针锋相对的模型,做出了截然不同的预测。该模型由塔夫茨大学(Tufts University)的杰罗尼母·卡帕尔多(Jeronim Capaldo)和联合国贸易与发展会议的亚历克斯·伊祖里耶塔(Alex Izurieta)以及前联合国助理秘书长约莫·基瓦姆·桑德拉姆(Jomo Kwame Sundaram)提出,预测TPP成员国都将出现工资下降和事业上升,两大关键国家美国和日本的收入也会下降。

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