Margaret Scott

Pruebas tóxicas

CAMBRIDGE – El gobierno de Estados Unidos está permitiendo a diez de los mayores bancos del país que reembolsen alrededor de 70 mil millones de dólares del capital que se les inyectó el pasado otoño. Esta decisión se tomó después de que los bancos pasaron las llamadas “pruebas de estrés” de su viabilidad financiera que la Tesorería estadounidense exigió, y del éxito que han tenido algunos de ellos para reunir el capital adicional que las pruebas indicaban que necesitaban.

Muchas personas han inferido a partir de esta secuencia de acontecimientos que los bancos estadounidenses –que son esenciales tanto para la economía de ese país como para la del mundo—ya no están en problemas. No obstante, esa inferencia es muy equivocada.

De hecho, las pruebas de estrés no pretendían calcular las pérdidas que los bancos han sufrido a causa de los numerosos “activos tóxico” que han estado en el centro de la crisis financiera. Sin embargo, el modelo estadounidense se está popularizando. Durante una reunión que celebraron este mes, los ministros de finanzas del G-8 acordaron seguir el ejemplo de Estados Unidos y aplicar pruebas de estrés a sus bancos. Pero para que los resultados de esas pruebas sean confiables, deben evitar la falla fundamental de las que se realizaron en Estados Unidos.

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