Derribar el muro de Berlín árabe

Decenas de millones de árabes presenciaron el derrocamiento de Saddam Hussein la primavera pasada, y en su caída vieron reflajada su propia situación. Con razón, ya que la transición de Irak puede marcar el inicio de la caída del "Muro Árabe", la invisible barrera de autoritarismo y rigidez que aisla a la región de manera tan fuerte como el Muro de Berlín dividió a Europa en dos.

Dado el profundo malestar que vive el Oriente Próximo, el status quo actual de los árabes no puede durar mucho tiempo más. Pero, ¿qué lo reemplazará? Existen tres oscuras posibilidades: una anarquía del tipo que permitió el surgimiento de Osama bin Laden en Afganistán, guerras civiles como las que asolaron a Argelia y Sudán, o un nuevo autoritarismo al estilo Saddam.

Para que cualquiera de estos escenarios se haga realidad, el mundo no tiene más que sentarse y esperar a que el status quo actual se pudra y hunda en el caos. Pero hay una alternativa positiva: que se implementen reformas que conduzcan al imperio de la ley, los derechos individuales, una sociedad civil más sólida y la democratización en todo el mundo árabe.

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