Падение арабской Берлинской стены

Десятки миллионов арабов стали свидетелями свержения Саддама Хусейна весной этого года, и нашли в падении иракского режима отражение своего собственного положения. Действительно, переходный период в Ираке может послужить началом падения «арабской стены» - невидимого барьера авторитаризма и замкнутости, также надежно изолирующих этот регион от остального мира, как когда-то Берлинская стена разделяла Европу на две части.

В условиях тяжелейшей ситуации на Ближнем Востоке, сегодняшний статус-кво арабского мира не может продолжаться долго. Но что придет ему на смену? Существуют три возможных варианта: анархия, подобная той, что позволила Осаме бен Ладену процветать в Афганистане, гражданские войны вроде тех, что опустошили Алжир и Судан, или же новые авторитарные режимы, подобные режиму Саддама.

Для реализации одного из этих печальных сценариев надо всего лишь дождаться, пока сохранение нынешнего статус-кво станет невозможным и в арабском мире воцарится хаос. Однако существует и позитивная альтернатива: реформы, ведущие к установлению правопорядка и частного права, созданию более здорового гражданского общества и демократизации всего арабского мира.

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