Nieder mit der arabischen Berliner Mauer

Zig Millionen Araber waren im letzten Frühjahr Zeugen des Sturzes von Saddam Hussein und sahen darin ein Spiegelbild ihrer eigenen Situation. Völlig zurecht, denn die Übergangsphase im Irak könnte das erste Signal des Einsturzes der ,,arabischen Mauer" sein - jener unsichtbaren Barriere aus Autoritarismus und Unerbittlichkeit, die die Region ebenso isoliert wie seinerzeit die Berliner Mauer Europa teilte.

Angesichts der tiefen Krise des Mittleren Ostens, kann der arabische Status quo nicht lange aufrecht erhalten werden. Was aber kommt danach? Dazu gibt es drei düstere Prognosen: Eine Anarchie nach dem Muster Afghanistans, die den Aufstieg Osama bin Ladens ermöglichte, Bürgerkriege in der Art wie sie in Algerien und dem Sudan wüteten oder ein neuer Autoritarismus im Stile Saddams.

Um eines dieser Szenarien Wirklichkeit werden zu lassen, braucht die Welt nichts weiter zu tun als abzuwarten und zu beobachten, wie alles im Chaos versinkt. Aber es gibt auch eine positive Alternative: Reformen, die zu Rechtsstaatlichkeit, persönlichen Rechten, einer stabileren Zivilgesellschaft und zur Demokratisierung in der arabischen Welt führen.

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