Effondrement du mur de Berlin arabe

Dix millions d'Arabes ont assisté à l'effondrement de Saddam Hussein au printemps dernier et ont vu dans sa chute des reflets de leur propre situation. A juste titre, car la période de transition que connaît actuellement l'Irak est susceptible de marquer le début de l'effondrement du « mur arabe », la barrière invisible de l'autoritarisme et de la rigidité qui isole la région aussi sûrement que le mur de Berlin a jadis divisé l'Europe en deux.

Etant donné le profond malaise qui frappe le Moyen-Orient, le statut quo arabe actuel ne résistera pas longtemps. Mais par quoi sera-t-il remplacé ? Il existe trois sombres alternatives : une anarchie du type de celle qui a permis à Oussama ben Laden de s'étendre en Afghanistan, des guerres civiles du type de celles qui ont ravagé l'Algérie et le Soudan, ou un nouvel autoritarisme à la Saddam.

Pour réaliser l'un de ces scénarios, le monde n'a rien d'autre à faire qu'attendre et regarder le statut quo actuel dépérir et sombrer dans le chaos. Mais il existe une alternative positive : des réformes débouchant sur l'institution d'une loi, de droits individuels, d'une société civile plus solide et d'une démocratisation dans l'ensemble du monde arabe.

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