Слишком большая экономия, слишком малые инвестиции

Сейчас много говорят об излишней экономии. Хотя, фактически, мировая экономика страдает не от слишком большой экономии, а от слишком малых инвестиций.

Чтобы это исправить, нам необходимо свершить две трансформации. И от того, насколько хорошо мир их реализует, зависит, продолжится ли бурный глобальный рост последних лет. Эта тема является центральной в Мировом Экономическом Обзоре(World Economic Outlook) МВФ, который выйдет в свет на этой неделе [редакторам: в среду 21-ого сентября 2005] накануне ежегодного собрания МВФ 2005 года.

В первую очередь, потребление должно плавно уступить место инвестициям, поскольку былая избыточная производственная мощность исчерпала себя и экспансионистская политика индустриальных стран теперь нормализуется. Во вторых, чтобы уменьшить несоответствия текущего торгового баланса, которые уже окрепли, спрос должен переместиться от стран имеющих дефицит в страны, имеющие излишки. В рамках этого второго перехода, более высокие цены на нефть подразумевают, что потребление производителями нефти должно увеличится, в то время как в странах потребителях нефти оно должно упасть.

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