储蓄太多,投资太少

关于全球储蓄过量的言谈四处可见。然而事实上,对全球经济造成损害的不是储蓄太多,而是投资太少。

为了补救,我们需要两种类型的过渡。世人实现这两种过渡的情况好坏将决定过去几年里强劲的全球增长是否能持续下去。这就是国币货币基金组织将在本周的2005年年会[编者按:2005年9月21日星期三]上公布的《世界经济展望》的核心内容。

首先,随着过去的过剩生产力逐渐抵消,工业国家的扩张政策正常化,消费必须平稳地让位给投资。其次,为了减少越积越多的经常项目不平衡,需求必须从出现赤字的国家转移到过剩的国家。在第二个过渡中,油价上涨意味着石油输出国的消费必须增长,同时石油输入国的必须降低。

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