La Actual Ruta de la Seda Está Pavimentada con Petróleo e Imperios

MOSCÚ: En la región del Cáucaso se está desarrollando una perversa dialéctica. Entre más se acusa a Rusia de tener ambiciones neoimperialistas, más se debilita su poder real. Mientras tanto, se incrementa la influencia turca y estadounidense.

Se comete un grave error al considerar que Rusia, como el Imperio Otomano hace un siglo, es el "hombre enfermo de Europa" y es incapaz de mantener sus intereses comerciales y estratégicos, y al pensar que sus tradicionales aliados de la región están disponibles para cualquiera. En efecto, la idea de que se puede separar a Rusia del Transcaucásico es una tontería. Los lazos entre Rusia y el Cáucaso tienen siglos de antigüedad y es imposible cortarlos. La presencia de Rusia va mucho más allá de las tropas que mantiene en el área. Los matrimonios interculturales abundan; el ruso es la lingua franca de la región; los negocios rusos (como Gazprom) dominan la escena.

El petróleo, no es sorpresa, está en la raíz de las diferencias en el Cáucaso. Los occidentales quieren volver a trazar la "Ruta de la Seda" del medioevo con caminos, rutas aéreas, ferrocarriles y oleoductos, los cuales valen miles de millones de dólares, pero también con muchas esperanzas. En Estados Unidos se cree que el petróleo puede aceitar el engranaje de la democracia, asegurando la independencia. Turquía considera que su creciente influencia en la región es una carta que debe jugar durante la negociación de su membresía en la Unión Europea (UE). Los gobiernos inciertos de la zona piensan que el petróleo es una lámpara mágica con la que pueden conseguir la prosperidad y la paz social sin tener que trabajar duro ni que aplicar reformas riesgosas.

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