As negociações com o Irão à beira do precipício

GENEBRA - O problema do tipo de provocação que se desenvolve actualmente em torno do programa nuclear do Irão é o facto de ser extremamente fácil de cair no precipício. Nas duas primeiras rondas de novas conversações entre o Irão e os P5+1 (os cinco membros permanentes do Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas mais a Alemanha), em Istambul, em Abril, e em Bagdad, em Maio, ambos os lados ainda tropeçaram à beira do precipício. Agora, após a terceira ronda em Moscovo, eles estão apenas seguros pelas pontas dos dedos.

Nenhum dos lados foi preparado para se comprometer com qualquer questão de fundo. Eles acordaram - simplesmente - em manter a reunião do início de Julho com peritos de nível baixo, mas ninguém espera que a reunião conduza a um avanço. Até lá, as novas sanções americanas e europeias sobre as exportações de petróleo iraniano estarão em vigor, e o Congresso dos Estados Unidos está a pressionar para aplicar mais, com vozes influentes a argumentar que o jogo das negociações acabou. A conversa sobre a guerra ainda está muito à flor da pele, em Israel, e a ansiedade é crescente, num clima altamente político de um ano de eleições nos EUA, a escalada não pode ser contida.

Embora as posições negociais dos dois lados, ao longo da actual série de negociações, não estejam tão distanciadas como no passado, as suas principais exigências têm demonstrado ser, até agora, incompatíveis.

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