Hora de hablar con Irán

BERLIN – La reciente evaluación amplia de las agencias de espionaje de Estados Unidos sobre el programa y ambiciones nucleares de Irán –la llamada “Evaluación Nacional de Inteligencia” (NIE por sus siglas en inglés)—ha abierto la puerta a nuevas discusiones estratégicas entre los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas y Alemania. Esa reconsideración estratégica probablemente sea más necesaria para aquellos miembros de la administración Bush (y algunos otros) que hasta hace poco han sido profetas de un peligro inminente.

Para los europeos, la NIE no ha eliminado, sino más bien confirmado, las preocupaciones que en 2003 tenía la UE-3 (Reino Unido, Francia y Alemania)—a saber, que mediante su programa, Irán podría obtener a la larga capacidad nuclear, y que incluso antes de que eso sucediera, podría desencadenar la proliferación nuclear regional.

La NIE también confirmó dos supuestos que desde entonces han guiado el enfoque diplomático europeo: Irán reacciona a los incentivos y las sanciones, y tomar en cuenta los intereses legítimos de Irán es la mejor forma de influir en sus líderes. La mayoría de los europeos que se han estado ocupando del asunto también suponen que Irán está buscando capacidades que con el tiempo le darían todas las opciones, incluyendo el desarrollo rápido de un arma nuclear, en lugar de adquirir, y ya no se diga probar, un arma, con lo que violaría el Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear.

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